Justify, Mendelssohn, Audible, Magnum Moon, Bolt d'Oro, Good Magic, Vino Rosso lead the crop of favourites to win the 144th winner of the Kentucky Derby. Always Dreaming (Bodemeister) won the 2017 version of this great race. This year the field is much more talented than in year’s past with a few sprinklings of some unusuals too. 

 

Justify and Magnum Moon for example are unbeaten thus far in their three year old campaigns but are unraced as a two year olds. They are also favourites to win the 2018 Run for the Roses.. Which brings the Apollo Curse into play. What is the Apollo Curse you ask? In 1882 Apollo won the Kentucky Derby after not having raced as a 2-year old. No horse since then has been able to repeat the feat. Hence, the “Curse of Apollo” was created over time. This 136-year-old curse is in huge danger of coming to an end by the Bob Baffert-trained colt Justify or the Todd Pletcher trainee Magnum Moon.

Although Bob Baffert trained Gr.1 Santa Anita Derby winner Justify is popular and a favourite to win the Derby, Magnum Moon (out of the Seattle Slew sire line) makes a better Derby choice. He has the pedigree, speed, stamina and profile of a classic champion. He won the Arkansas Derby and also the Rebel Stakes making his tally 4 out of 4 with two major stakes wins.

 

His sire Malibu Moon had a total of 29 foals of racing age out of daughters of Unbridled and Unbridled’s Song. Only one of the 29 had become a black-type winner, but that black-type winner was none other than Orb, the 2013 Kentucky Derby hero. Malibu Moon’s partnership with Unbridled’s Song team is shaping up extremely well. And Magnum Moon’s success in the Run For Roses could be the next boost to Malibu Moon’s already inflated stud fees.

 

Ideally, Bolt d’Oro and Vino Rosso should land in the Superfecta. The experienced campaigner Bolt d’Oro has already been on the Breeders Cup’ trail.

 

Gr.2 San Felipe Stakes winner Bolt d’Oro (Medaglia d'Oro - Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy) was bred by WinStar Farm and consigned to the Fasig-Tipton New York Saratoga 2016 Select Yearling Sale by Denali Stud. The Ruis family shelled out $630,000 for the handsome bay half-brother to the sprinter Sonic Mule.

 

Has showcased his talent beautifully. He won the Del Mar Futurity and Frontrunner Stakes last year and this year he won the San Felipe Stakes. He also came in second in the Santa Anita Derby behind Justify. This horse has the capacity to hold his guard in the long run.

Vino Rosso is out of the 2007 Gr.1 Preakness Stakes winner Curlin and whimsically named mare Mythical Bride  out of the Gr.1 Dubai World Cup winner Street Cry who was second in the 2000 Gr.3 Del Mar Futurity. The Gr.2 Wood Memorial winner is probably the most unpredictable of horses in the race card but he has got good speed. Hall of Famer John Velazquez was in town for Vino Rosso’s last half-mile breeze in 47.20 seconds. He produced an especially strong gallop. The son of Curlin continues to garner buzz in the right circles.

 

Dr. E.J. Finocchio, an equine vet, undertook a study in 1995 about birth order and success of the racehorse. Dr. Finocchio studied 689 horses that won either a Triple Crown or Breeders’ Cup race; won an Eclipse Award; or earned more than $1 million.

 

Those 689 foals were out of 680 dams.  Dr. Finocchio discovered that a mare’s first 5 foals have a better probability of success. Foals who were second in the order had (the highest) a 21.5% percent of success. Another study shows that foals who were second in the order had 31.5% chance of landing third place in the Kentucky Derby. There are no prizes for guessing Vino Rosso along with Noble Indy and Audible are second order foals.

 

Vino Rosso can be a little off when it comes to following rules and listening to his trainers. He has also been quoted as “difficult to train” sometimes but he has got heart. But then Hong Kong’s wayward son Pakistan Star came of age at Sha Tin on Champions Day and smashed his rivals in the Gr.1 Audemars Piguet Queen Elizabeth II Cup.

Unfortunately, even before Derby week could start, some names have been scratched. Popular Gronkowski  who is named after Robert Gronkowski a top American football tight end for the New England Patriots was withdrawn due to a minor illness. Robert Gronkowski bought a substantial share in the horse after his owner Kerri Radcliffe revealed that she named him after the sports star.

 

Gr.2 Tampa Bay Derby winner Quip is now slotted for the Preakness Stakes instead. Also, Bravazo out of Gr.1 Breeders Cup Classic winner Awesome Again has also been scratched from the race so we have 3 new runners from the bubble Strike Power, Instilled Regard and Combatant.

 

Interestingly Strike Power trainer Mark Hennig’s hearing the doubts about the son of Speightstown but Hennig, who first saddled Personal Hope for a fourth-place finish in the 1993 Derby is confident about his charge. “He’s a dream to train,” Hennig said of Strike Power. “The toughest part of having really nice horses and horse with his kind of speed is that they want to do too much on a daily basis and when you breeze them. He’s so push button.” Gulfstream’s meet-leading rider, Luis Saez, will be in the irons Saturday.

 

Other horses that have qualified for the Derby are Justify, Mendelssohn, Audible, Magnum Moon, Bolt d'Oro, Good Magic, Vino Rosso, Hofburg, Noble Indy, Solomini, My Boy Jack, Enticed, Promises Fulfilled, Free Drop Billy, Flameaway, Restoring Hope, Firenze Fire , Lone Sailor , Quip , Combatant , Reride , Snapper Sinclair , Bravazo and Dream Baby Dream

 

Click HERE to check out our article on the qualified 20.

 

By Apurva Chavan, Racing Writer, apurva.chavan@secretariatsworld.com