After a year like 2018 where Justify fought hard every step of the way, this year was a complete disappointment. The Derby was a wash out for multiple reasons and the horses in the Gr.1 Preakness could have been of a higher calibre.
With the field in front of us, the Gr.1 Belmont Stakes seems to be a two-horse race - War of Will trained by Mark Casse and the Bill Mott trained Tacitus who will be guided by Jose Ortiz Jr.
The War Front colt was a bit unlucky Churchill Downs and got cut off by Maximum Security at the Kentucky Derby. However, his Preakness victory was a direct result of a perfect trip and a great ride out of jockey Tyler Gaffalione. Although his the outside post should give him some advantages, this is a much better matched field and he may need to go up in several gears to win this one.
His biggest challenger on paper, has the Juddmont breeding to win the Belmont Stakes. The son of Tapit finished a brilliant fourth in the Kentucky Derby despite all the challenges. He needs a good break to make this work. The fast surface and faster fractions towards the end could give him an easy win. He would need to take on War Of Will on the turn, and storm through in the stretch.
Lets take a quick look at the other runners in the field:
Joevia trained by Gregory Sacco finished a disappointing seventh in his only graded stakes attempt this year. He seemed to tire after a pace duel early. He may not fit the Belmont Stakes C&D winner profile.
Everfast trained by Dale Romans was impressive in his last start (Preakness Stakes), closing from as many as 22-lengths back to finish second. He definitely seemed to relish the added furlongs as seen in his Gr.1 Preakness run but he has shown a tendency to tire in the stretch. He has the potential to cause a great upset.
Master Fencer trained by Koichi Tsunoda all the way from Japan for the US Triple Crown. He is a great closer but the Belmont is not usually a closer’s race. In his first start on American soil, in the Gr.1 Kentucky Derby he rallied late after a very slow beginning. Usually horses who run in the Derby but skip the Preakness have a good record in this race overall. But he seems slow in his workout times since the Derby, and there are questions about how his pedigree will handle the distance.
Tax trained by Danny Gargan looks like he hated the slop, which he saw plenty of during the Gr.1 Kentucky Derby. Timing wise he has put forth some of the race’s quickest efforts, and he was second best to Tacitus who worked out a perfect trip in the Wood Memorial. It seems as if he should be a Turf horse with his excellent pedigree and that he is declining in his dirt form.
Bourbon War trained by Mark Hennig will be guided by Mike Smith without the blinkers which hampered more than they helped. Last year’s Triple Crown winning jockey winner has the right experience to take the Tapit colt closer to the lead if need be. It’s worth noting that this colt won his one-turn mile maiden by stalking in third, about a length off the leader.He’s finished out of the money twice in a row and really needs to pick up the pace in this one.
Spinoff is the exotic with fanatastic speed who needs a good start to win. With a quick start he could win easy in his current form.
Sir Winston is the other horse trained by Mark Casse who will be competing in the Belmont Stakes. The Gr.3 Peter Pan Stakes was a really nice run for him, some even say it was his career best. He possesses one of the only 100+ speed figure in the field. It is a good sign to see him raced back so quickly. Despite the extraordinary success in the Peter Pan, he may be outclassed in this field.
Intrepid Heart trained by Todd Pletcher is the final runner in the Belmont Stakes’ field. This lightly raced son of Tapit is definitely one of the best runners bred for the mile and a half distance. He has a nice bit of early speed, and was unbeaten until his last start, where he stumbled at the beginning of last race. An Arrogate he is not, who got up from a tumble at the beginning of the Gr.1 Dubai World Cup and went on to win the race. In this field, his lack of experience could prove to be a detriment.
Click Here For Full Finishing List 2019
Race Info:
Distance: 1½ miles (12 furlongs), Record: 2:24, Secretariat (1973), Surface: Dirt,Track: Left-handed, Qualification: 3-year-olds, Weight: Colt/Gelding: 126 pounds (57 kg); Filly: 121 pounds (55 kg), Purse: US$1.5 million,1st: $800,000